Now we get into the terrain Velo la Source knows best, starting with the Col d’Izoard, which as Frank pointed out, we like to call “Cold-And-It’s-So-Hard,” thought recent temperatures might negate the first part of that nick-name. The climb from Embrun through Guillestre and up through the Casse Deserte (past the Coppi-Bartoli memorial) is just plain hard, but it’s also the first climb of the day. Recent Maillot a Pois history would have Rasmussen going hard from the gun, perhaps dueling with De La Fuente, to get those early mountain points. That’s how Virenque did it for seven years, and Jalabert continued the tradition.

The Izoard is not easy, but the descent into Briancon is long, and there is a flat section through the village of Cervieres that slows the descent. Then, the ride from Briancon to the Lautaret is one long false flat averaging about 3.5 percent. This is the reverse of what the riders did last year coming off the Galibier, when Vinokourov won a screaming finish into Briancon. I cannot see the front group not coming back together between Cervieres and Lautaret. Then it’s all downhill from Lautaret to le Bourg d’Oisans. The only way somebody is going to be in the lead is if he is on a suicide break–and even then he may need the complicity of the pack to allow him to go solo.

Thus, scenario one is that the front group allows a good climber who is not a c.g. threat to go for glory on Alpe d’Huez; call this the Hampsten scenario. Possible Hampstens: Garzelli, Simoni, (I’ve picked him for Alpe d’Huez before and been wrong), Chavanel, Landaluze, and Caucchioli.

Scenario two is that there is nobody up the road (with the exception, perhaps, of the long-suffering Chavanel) and the main contenders hit the bottom of the Alpe all together. Then it goes one of two ways. The strongest stay together for a close finish at the summit, as happened at the Pla-de-Beret, or somebody–or a couple of bodies–slip away for a strong finish. It should be pointed out that this is how the Alpe is usually won (it’s how Mayo won in 2003), and it’s historically a Dutchman who does it. So here is my pick to win the Alpe on Monday: Michael Boogerd. Historically more dangerous than you think on the Alpe: Totschnig and Moreau.

This will be a great day of racing, no doubt about it, but anybody who has ridden the Glandon-Croix de Fer loop–either clockwise or anti-clockwise–knows that those two climbs from the Maurienne Valley to the twin shoulders of Glandon-Croix-de-Fer are as hard as it gets. Add the final kicker over Mollard to la Toussuire and you have the queen stage of the Tour. This is the one that Landis will win with strong descending skills and his proven grit. If Landis does not take the jersey back at Alpe d’Huez on Tuesday, he will have it on Wednesday night.